Sunday, August 05, 2012

Recession Watch Indicator for week ended August 3, 2012

Here's my own personal cut at a recession watch indicator, for week ended August 3, 2012:
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Rate: modestly negative – yellow flag (-2)
  • Weekly Employment Insurance Initial Claims: elevated but below 400K – pale green flag (+1)
  • Recent M2 Money Stock: rising – green flag (+2)
  • Macroenconomic Advisers GDP outlook for Q3: modest growth – pale green flag (+1)
  • Recent Employment Growth: modest – pale green flag (+1)
  • Recent ISM Manufacturing Reports: slightly negative – pale yellow flag (-1)
  • Recent ISM Services Reports: modestly positive – pale green flag (+1)
  • Average: +0.43 – pale green – recession not likely but still possible
-- Jack Krupansky

1 Comments:

At 1:40 PM EST , Anonymous QUALITY STOCKS UNDER FIVE DOLLARS said...

Great posts

 

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