Maintain NASDAQ 4,000 this week?

The big question today is whether short-term players will ride the rally or take some profits. Normally, the short-term players close out their positions before the end of the week since anything can happen on the weekend. Since so many people will be leaving early today and even skip the half-day trading on Friday, the usual short-term players may bail out today, especially if they are worried that Thanksgiving retail sales may be a disappointment. OTOH, some of the slightly longer-term players may pile on and take speculative positions in anticipation that holiday retail sales might be better than expected, at least for some retail category niches.

 

The key thing to watch today is whether there is a rally pop at the open that people sell into. Unfortunately, the same thing could happen on Friday even if the market holds up today.

-- Jack Krupansky

NASDAQ 4,000 - What's next?

Okay, NASDAQ finally reclaimed the 4,000 level on a closing basis (at 4,017.75) for the first time since September 8, 2000. A dog's age, quite literally. What's next? That's easy: Make it through the rest of this week and see if the 4,000 closing level sticks on Monday and through next week.

 

In fact, I wouldn't get too attached to the 4,000 level until we close above 4,150 for at least two weeks.

 

Where is all of this headed? Hard to say. It would be better for us all to have a "go slow" trajectory for an extended period of time, but Wall Street doesn't like to work that way – an endless cycle of boom and bust is more the speed of the average denizen of Wall Street.

 

Still, it is interesting that we made it this far.

 

Oh, and my sincere condolences to all of those poor unfortunate souls who dumped all of their stocks at the bottom in 2009 and never got back in and have missed the entire recovery while waiting in low-interest bonds.

-- Jack Krupansky

NASDAQ 4,000 - Take Four

Maybe today will be the day that NASDAQ can finally regain – and keep – the 4,000 level that it hasn't seen since December of 2000. Unfortunately, this is a slow, holiday trading week, so what happens this week will not necessarily stick for next week, especially since traders will be looking for preliminary Thanksgiving retail sales numbers to pass judgment on the strength of the economy (and hence the stock market) – at least from the mindset of a Wall Street trader. There should be some preliminary numbers on Sunday, if not "early indications" on Saturday.

 

It is not uncommon for Wall Street to take multiple attempts before crossing major numeric milestones. The problem is limit sell orders that speculators position both below and above the designated milestone. Some fraction of traders like to explicitly take profits short of the milestone or slightly above the milestone on the theory that the market is stretching too far and is weaker and likely to pullback anyway. We kind of saw that yesterday.

 

The other speculation theory is to place "stop buy" orders more than a little above the designated milestone on the theory that if and when the market reaches that far above the milestone then it is probably a good sign that the market is strong enough to be starting (or at least continuing) a "new leg" on the rally. It would appear that we haven't good there yet.

 

Traders seem to flip a coin as to whether they take a negative or positive bias on any given day. The bias isn't always reflected in futures. For example, even with futures up, traders can still take a "sell into any rally" bias, on the theory that real market strength isn't there yet. And if they're wrong, they can quickly reverse their positions and amplify any real strength. And vice versa.

 

The way the market has been trading lately, with new highs on thin trading with a lot of major stocks declining, as opposed to much broader advances, says that people are being rather tentative in placing major new bets. That's more than a little bit of a bearish sign, but can also be a signal of pent up demand that could just as easily explode to the upside as evaporate and "run for the exits" on the downside. It is indeed a volatile time. Nominally the upwards bias should be a year-end rally, but defensively people seem to be in more of a "sell into every rally" mood until the outlook gets stronger. The ultimate question is how many money managers are lined up with funds to invest before the end of the year.

 

Another factor is retail investors trying to dump mutual funds before the end of the year to try to avoid nasty capital gains tax distributions which can be greater than any actual gains they may have had from recent investments. If retail investors pull money out of funds, the funds may not have enough cash reserves and be forced to dump some of their holdings to satisfy withdrawal requests.

 

So, NASDAQ 4,000 today? Flip a coin. Besides, as I said, even if we close out this week above 4,000, we could easily lose it next week. Even if retail sales are strong or even "okay", people might feel that they are not as strong as expected or desired and then actually sell off on good news next week. And sometimes we see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect where stocks rally in advance on anticipation of good news and then these hot money speculators "take profits" as soon as the anticipation is over. OTOH, given the tentativeness of the market lately, we could see the opposite, positive reaction.

-- Jack Krupansky

NASDAQ 4,000

I imagine that NASDAQ will finally pop above the 4,000 level sometime today, maybe even right at the open since NASDAQ is less than nine points away from 4,000, at 3,991.65 . Whether it closes above 4,000 and actually stays closed above 4,000 for more than a few days or weeks remains to be seen. NASDAQ 4,000 won't be a historic event though, since NASDAQ rose above 4,000 in late December 1999 and last saw 4,000 back in September 2000. As the saying goes, it's been awhile.

 

The remaining question is whether the push above 4,000 will be led and sustained by the large-cap stocks, or the smaller cap stocks that have been getting a lot of inflows this year.

 

As a minor note, Twitter (TWTR) can't help (or hurt) NASDAQ on its push through 4,000 – since it is a NYSE stock. But Facebook (FB) can and has an excellent opportunity to regain a little of the luster it lost as Twitter's stock began to come onto the scene.

 

A lot of the formerly hot Internet stocks that did so well this year will also be watched closely. Some are still near their highs, but quite a few have seen profit taking in recent weeks.

 

Hey, maybe even Tesla (TSLA) will see a bounce after its recent sharp decline (which I bought into.) NASDAQ 4,000 – as they say, with or without you.

-- Jack Krupansky

Made dip buy of Cisco

I had been thinking of opening a modest position in Cisco (CSCO), and the big 12% dip on Thursday triggered my decision to buy. It's up modestly since then. Sure, the news on their outlook was a disappointment, but not that disappointing. I don't expect the stock to go dramatically real soon, but I do think it will trend up in the longer term and the 2.9% dividend in the interim is fine with me.

 

I didn't buy any more Tesla (TSLA) this week. The stock drifted down a little, but not enough to trigger another 5% dip buy.

-- Jack Krupansky

What's next for Twitter's stock?

What's next for Twitter's (TWTR) stock? Good question. Now that the purchases from the opening day have settled (T+3) and short selling is possible, and now that options are available (on Friday), trading could become more active and more typical. I'd give the stock another week to settle into some sort of consistent trading pattern. I mean, there are probably a lot of people who were waiting for the initial frenzy to die off before testing the waters.

 

Given the large pop at the IPO open, I would say that the initial upside is rather muted. The result is that the stock is likely to trade in a range of plus and minus 20% for the next few months.

 

The next big test will be in February when the three-month lockup expires and insiders finally have a chance to dump some of their holdings. That will put some downwards pressure on the stock. OTOH, as soon as that event has passed the stock could bounce higher.

 

But... then in May the six-month lockup expires and even more insider stock will likely be dumped on the markets. That will be a mixed bag, again – a negative due to the downwards pressure of that insider selling, but then a positive as many investors on the sidelines will then feel that it is finally safe to dive into the stock once those initial waves of insider selling have passed.

 

The flip side of this is that since so many people will be tempted to dive in after the second lockup expiration, that will be a bad time to dive in, so the smart money will likely want to buy on significant dips that occur over the next few months before the coast is formally declared clear.

 

In any case, so far the stock has traded in a fairly narrow range, which is somewhat unusual for such a hot stock. It probably simply means that there is a rough equal balance between the bullish players and the bearish players. That sets the stage for significant volatility.

 

This coming week should be interesting, but I'll want to see how TWTR closes out the coming week.

 

Meanwhile, I need to make a mental note to place a 15% dip GTC buy order. And maybe a 20% dip (another 5% from the initial 15% dip) order as well. I may using 10% increments for my dip orders rather than 5%, but I haven't decided yet. I also need to consider using option trades as well.

-- Jack Krupansky

Bought the 15% dip for Facebook

I put in a limit order this afternoon for Facebook (FB) at a 15% dip from it's recent peak of $54.83. It filled later in the afternoon, at the 15% dip price of $46.60. It did decline a little more to close at $46.20. Actually, it hit an intraday low of $45.73, before bouncing back at the close, suggesting a lot of day trading on negative sentiment.

 

I'll do another dip buy after another 5% decline  or so. Or, I may wait for a 10% decline, depending on how busy or attentive I am.

-- Jack Krupansky

Correction - no market orders on an IPO open

I have to correct one thing about my original plans for how to play the IPO open for Twitter. I suggested that I would place a small market order to assure that I got a position, plus a couple of limit orders, but the simple truth is that you aren't permitted to place a market order before the open of an IPO, only limit orders. Once the IPO stock begins trading, then you can place market orders.

 

The other reality is that if you watch the "indications" shortly before the open, you can easily contrive a limit order that is very likely to be accepted at the open, effectively "as if" it were a market order.

-- Jack Krupansky

Twitter - Day Two

Talk about an ugly hangover, that was Twitter's (TWTR) second day of trading. What an... unpleasant situation. Geez. I mean, at this rate, they seem determined to make the Facebook (FB) post-IPO trading look good. Down over 7% in one day, on no news. Chalk it up to a bunch of short-term Wall Street speculative trading, probably people who bought on the market after the IPO expecting a huge pop and now jumping ship since there was no pop.

 

A month or two ago, the conventional wisdom for buying on the open market was simply to wait a few days for the initial euphoria and frenzy to burn off. So, let's see how Twitter closes on Tuesday.

 

As with Facebook or any other IPO, there will be additional downwards pressure on the stock when the two lockup periods expire, in three months and in six months. Those are the times when insiders can sell.

 

We may have reach "buying exhaustion" on Thursday, the point at which all the people anxious to buy have done so, so there is no longer any upwards pressure. As a result, a fair number of short sellers may have crawled out of the woodwork. That downward pressure could continue until we reach "selling exhaustion" where there are no more people lined up to short the stock.

 

In any case, I'll be looking at serious dips to make additional purchases. My usual plan is to wait for a 15% dip from the most recent high. Technically, Twitter did reach 50.09 early on Thursday, so a 15% dip would be $42.58, so at $41.65 it is in my dip window. But... I'm not going to treat that early volatility as significant. I'll use the $45.10 open as my starting point, so a 15% dip would be at $38.34. In fact, I may use the closing level on Tuesday as my starting point. I may also stretch my 15% threshold to 20% or even 25% for my initial dip purchase in light of the Facebook post-IPO trajectory. Or, I may just use $35 or $30 or even $25 as my initial dip threshold, and then revert to a 15% dip threshold once the stock starts climbing again in a sustainable manner.

-- Jack Krupansky

Do Twitter's investment bankers believe that the stock is headed down towards $30?

From Bloomberg:

Twitter's management and its bankers are happy with the IPO's outcome, according to a person with direct knowledge of their thinking. While they're not surprised the stock gained so much, because of the overhang in demand, they expect it to drop toward $30 a share during the next three weeks, this person said.

See:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-08/twitter-resists-investor-frenzy-to-avert-facebook-ipo-flop-redux.html

 

Hey, everybody has their right to an opinion. Besides, if they are right, I'll be there to buy more at a cheaper price, as I did with Facebook.

 

-- Jack Krupansky

Facebook approaching a buyable dip

Facebook (FB) has had a long run since my last dip purchase at $23.82 in June, but has now pulled back significantly from its recent peak of $54.83 peak. My threshold for dip buying is 15%, then 20%, and then 25%. A 15% dip would be at $46.60, which would be another $0.96 lower than the closing price of $47.56.  A 20% dip would be at $43.86, and a 25% dip would be at $41.12.

 

Flip a coin whether FB falls further or sharply bounces back – or falls AND sharply bounces back.

-- Jack Krupansky

Twitter IPO survives the day

Despite some lingering concerns about how the Twitter IPO might play out, it all seemed to work out. Besides the fact that so many of us missed out on the IPO itself, not to mention the somewhat overvalued offering price, the only real downer was that the stock closed the day down from its opening price. Sure, the opening was was up relative to the offering price, from $26 to $45.10, but TWTR closed the day at $44.90, down 20 cents from the $45.10 opening price which was the earliest price available for the general public.

 

So, sure, it was a "great" day for Wall Street insiders, but a mediocre day for the general public and retail investors. I mean, $45.10 really is a gross overvaluation for the company, and a decline of 20 cents is not a great first day of trading.

 

Oh, and I see that TWTR is down 24 cents in extended trading.

 

All of that said, this first day tells us very little about how the stock might trade in the coming days and weeks. Three to six months from now, I expect that progress on the revenue and earnings fronts will dictate a lot of the stock action.

 

I made only one modest purchase of TWTR today, keeping most of my powder dry, so I wouldn't mind if TWTR ended up like Facebook, with lots of volatility and big dips to buy at much cheaper prices than the actual IPO offering.

 

My other limit order at $35 expired without getting filled, as expected.

 

Interesting... My Fidelity account summary shows "n/a" for the price and value of my TWTR position. Sigh.

 

Overall, I'm reasonably "okay" with my initial Twitter position. Longer term I want a much larger position, but I it needs to be on more reasonable pricing. Bring on the dips!

 

 

-- Jack Krupansky

Bought the Tesla dip

Besides the general market decline, Tesla (TSLA) got slammed as well due to the report of another fire, so I bought the dip a second time for this stock. I have every confidence that they will be a great success for the long run.

-- Jack Krupansky

Bought Twitter at the open

I was watching the Twitter open online at the CNBC web site and it was fun hearing them cry out as price discovery narrowed and finally matched at $45.10 and trading began. I went over to my Fidelity account, clicked refresh and my $55 limit order immediately showed a fill at... $45.10 (as expected.) So, I am now officially a Twitter shareholder.

 

My $35 limit order will sit there, for now. I'll check back later in the day. Otherwise, I am essentially done with my initial trading for Twitter. Now back to real life.

 

CNBC shows Twitter (TWTR) at $46.88 as I type this.

-- Jack Krupansky

Oops... screwed up one of my Twitter limit orders!

Check, check, check. The essential mantra. So, I checked my limit orders (hoping maybe that they were executed!) and noticed that I had messed up my $55 order, making it $50 by mistake. Probably not a big deal given the $45 to $46 indication, but... best to make it right. I submitted a "Attempt to Cancel and Replace" order with Fidelity and it seems to have been accepted, so now I'm really back to where I thought (and claimed) I was, with one limit order at $35 and one at $55 for an equal number of shares.

 

And a realtime quote doesn't show any activity yet.

-- Jack Krupansky

Waiting for the Twitter open

The opening for Twitter is now "indicating" for $45 to $46, just about midway between my two limit orders, so I feel comfortable leaving them right where they are. My limit order at $55 should be executed at the open.

 

In fact, I think the "indicating" price range is based on all of the current limit orders, mine included.

 

Who knows, maybe I'm the only guy trying to buy Twitter, so that's why it matches my average. Yeah... right. LOL!

-- Jack Krupansky

Placed two limit orders for Twitter

I made my initial decision, to place two small limit orders for Twitter. The first is for $35, the second for $55, equal number of shares. There is a small chance that the first order will succeed in the early trading, or maybe later in the day if the stock swoons. The second order has a much higher chance of succeeding at the open.

 

These orders are in one of my retirement accounts, at Fidelity.

 

We'll see how the open goes and then I'll decide whether to buy a larger position. I mean, if interest is very weak and light, I'll stake a much larger position.

-- Jack Krupansky

No luck on the Twitter IPO

I just called my broker and he confirmed that they did all their allocation calls for the Twitter IPO last night and that they had gotten only a "very small" allocation. Oh Well. That's that. Hey, I tried.

 

Now back to how to play the open market.

 

Two numbers popped into my head last night and this morning, $40 and $55. I think Twitter could open at either.

 

If Twitter had come before Facebook, I'm sure the opening pop would be much bigger, but with so many people being gun-shy due to the Facebook IPO fiasco, I think a lot more people will hold off from jumping into the open market. I mean, it will tend to be an either-or; either you got in on the IPO or you are going to wait a few days, weeks, or months to see how the stock trades being jumping in. Sure, there will indeed be a frenzy of trading at the open and throughout the day, but it will likely be more moderated than if the Facebook IPO hadn't flopped.

 

My attitude is that I would have bought a boatload in the IPO itself, but that without an IPO opportunity I would rather keep most of my powder dry and deploy it on 15% dips. I don't expect a Facebook-style opportunity for a 50% dip, but I'm sure Twitter will be somewhat volatile over the next year, especially when lockups expire in three months and six months.

 

Now, out for my walk and time to make a final decision on my initial play. I'm currently leaning towards waiting until an hour after the Twitter open (whenever that is) and buy a small position at market when the initial dust has settled. I may also submit an even smaller market order at the open, on the small chance that the stock really could fly right from the get-go.

-- Jack Krupansky

No word on any Twitter IPO allocations

Well, it's past my bedtime and there's been no call for my Twitter IPO allocation, or even the slightest hint of any allocations for anybody on Twitter. Maybe they'll do them in the morning. We'll see.

-- Jack Krupansky

Fidelity comments on Twitter trading

I just logged into my Fidelity account and it has this red notice at the top:

Twitter, Inc. (symbol TWTR) has priced at $26 per share and is expected to begin trading in the secondary market on Thursday, November 7, 2013. Limit orders will be accepted at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, November 7, 2013, and Market orders will be accepted when Twitter (TWTR) begins trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Just for fun, I tried to place a limit order, but got this message:

(QX0055) The symbol you entered is not recognized. If you are attempting to place an order for Twitter, please note that its announced common stock offering is currently not expected to start trading in the secondary market until after market open on November 7, 2013. Limit orders may be accepted after 7:00 am ET on November 7, 2013 but market orders are not eligible until the security starts to trade in the secondary market.

LOL!

 

-- Jack Krupansky

Oversubscription and the wait for Twitter IPO allocation

I'm still waiting on the Twitter IPO. I imagine what the underwriters are doing right now are two things: 1) confirming what firms and funds still want in on the deal at $26 and whether they may want to reduce their allocations at that premium price, and 2) working through the subscriber list in priority order since it is heavily oversubscribed and firms and funds need to have their indicated interest reduced in some semi-rational manner.

 

Until that process completes – possibly taking even a few hours – brokers can't deal with us retail customers. Once a broker has their final allocation for the whole firm, they can then begin working through the same process for each of us retail investors. That would be when I would get my call.

 

When I was in a local Fidelity office last week, one of the guys said that the process for Facebook lasted into the next morning. Not an appealing prospect, but maybe it's the price you have to pay to be in this kind of game.

-- Jack Krupansky

Sharebuilder accepting limit orders for Twitter

Just a few minutes ago I got an email from ShareBuilder, where I have an account, referring to the Twitter IPO. ShareBuilder doesn't have any IPO shares of Twitter, but clearly they want to hop on the Twitter bandwagon. I visited their Twitter IPO page, which informs me that:

November 6, at 4 PM ET - We begin accepting limit orders for Twitter.

 

November 7, on or after the market open – Once trading begins on the secondary market, we will accept all order types.

See:

http://www.sharebuilder.com/sharebuilder/help/topic.aspx?CategoryCode=&FaqCode=FTEMPTIPO

 

I don't have much cash in that particular account to buy Twitter, but it's nice to know that I could.

 

Besides, with a limit order and a stock this frothy, it's hard to figure out a reasonable limit order that will assure that you get the stock.

-- Jack Krupansky

Twitter IPO priced at $26

It was interesting to see the explosion of tweets on Twitter search when the IPO pricing became known. I don't know where it was first, but Bloomberg TV had a post at 6:38 PM ET:

 

https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/statuses/398232942851670017

 

Twitter themselves did tweet their IPO pricing, but not until 6:48 PM ET, 10 minutes after Bloomberg TV:

 

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/398235511254298624

 

Oh, yeah, and the price for the Twitter IPO was set at $26. Above the $23 to $25 range, but just barely. I can deal with it.

 

Now, back to waiting for my broker to call...

-- Jack Krupansky

WSJ: Twitter IPO could price above $25

I just saw this Wall Street Journal article that says:

Twitter's Inc.'s initial public offering is likely to price at $25 to $28 a share, according to fund managers briefed by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley bankers, two of the banks underwriting the deal.

See:

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303763804579181882915649914

 

The $25 to $28 price range is not beyond the realm of reason, but I don't have a lot of faith in these indirect rumors.

 

What I do know is that if I do get an IPO allocation, a higher price will translate into a smaller number of shares that I will be interested in. I mean, my appetite for Twitter is based on how attractively the deal is priced. $20 was my limit for a great deal. $25 is my limit for a reasonably good deal. But $28 is just barely a reasonable deal. I mean, at $28 I would rather keep a larger fraction of my money as cash to buy on dips. And at $28 a Facebook-like fizzle starts becoming a realistic scenario. Still, I will definitely want to buy something at $28.

 

-- Jack Krupansky

Read the chatter about Twitter IPO in realtime - via Twitter

You can use Twitter search to follow all tweets that reference "twitter ipo" – in realtime - using Twitter search:

 

https://twitter.com/search?q=twitter%20ipo&src=typd&f=realtime

 

CNBC "promises" to post the Twitter IPO pricing – on Twitter – here:

 

https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney

 

Me, I'm sitting next to the phone, waiting for my broker to call – if I get an allocation.

-- Jack Krupansky

Bought the Tesla dip

This morning I bought some Tesla (TSLA) for one of my retirement accounts when I saw that it was down over 15%. There is a lot of short-term negative sentiment towards Tesla, while I think their longer-term outlook is more promising, so I welcomed the opportunity to buy a nice dip.

-- Jack Krupansky

Still a chance for getting a Twitter IPO allocation

I called my broker this morning and they confirmed that they took down the Twitter IPO announcement simply because the order indication period was closed. It definitely sounds as if they are getting an allocation for the firm. And it even sounded likely that all of us on my broker's indication list would get allocations, but "reduced allocations." No details. No solid confirmations. At this stage I'll simply have to wait for the confirmation phone call this evening after pricing is completed.

 

I also sold a little of the Fidelity Freedom Fund 2025 (FFTWX) in my Roth retirement account so that I could buy a modest Twitter position after the open tomorrow. That's separate from any IPO allocation I might get in my non-retirement account.

-- Jack Krupansky

Buy on Tesla dip?

I have a modest position in Tesla (TSLA), which is expected to droop dramatically at the open due to unmet "expectations" following a respectable quarterly report. I'll watch it after the open. If it settles with a 10% drop or more, I'll consider doubling down on my position. That's money I could also throw at the Twitter IPO, but the over-pricing and uncertainty of the Twitter IPO means that it is now less attractive than buying TSLA on the dip.

-- Jack Krupansky

No new news on Twitter IPO

It is oddly quiet on the Twitter IPO front – no new news over the past day. The IPO order book was supposed to close at noon on Tuesday. I assume that happened, but there has been no news or confirmation.

 

I am a bit worried since my broker has taken the Twitter announcement off their IPO list, but that may just be because they are no longer accepting indications of interest. Or, maybe, it might mean that the firm did not get any allocation of Twitter. I have no way of knowing which, for now. I'll given them a call this morning.

 

The big event for today is final pricing of the IPO, which will happen sometime after the market closes today, Wednesday, November 6, 2013.

 

Assuming my broker got an allocation, I would still have to sit next to the phone from 4 PM to midnight waiting for their call to confirm any allocation that I might get. They won't be able to decide whether I get an allocation until after Twitter's underwriters set the final pricing and allocations to brokers and then the people ahead of me on my broker's list have made their final decisions on their indications. It might be messy since the price range was raised by 25% since we made our initial indications of interest.

 

Whether or not I get an allocation in the IPO, I'll probably buy a modest position at the open in my retirement account, and then add to that position on any 15% dips in the coming months.

-- Jack Krupansky

Twitter to close IPO order book early on Tuesday

I just noticed this statement in an earlier article on the NY Times DealBook:

Thanks to the strong demand for its stock, Twitter is planning to close the order books for its I.P.O. on Tuesday at noon, a day earlier than scheduled, according to people familiar with the matter.

Twitter still plans to price on Wednesday and begin trading on Thursday.

See:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/11/04/twitter-raises-price-range-for-i-p-o/

 

Maybe this means brokers will be able to inform us retail investors a day earlier whether we will be getting an allocation for the Twitter IPO.

 

But whether that means we are more or less likely to get an allocation remains to be seen.

-- Jack Krupansky

Poll suggests that Twitter IPO not worth all the hype

This article references a new poll that suggests that Twitter may be overrated and overpriced – and that was before the company decided to raise is proposed offering price range to $23 to $25 a share.

 

See:

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/twitter-ipo-not-worth-all-hype-cnbc-ap-poll-shows-8C11518981

 

But... to me this simply means that people are struggling with how to value a social media company, both now and over the indefinite future, as well as what the Twitter brand is really worth.

-- Jack Krupansky

Twitter IPO pricing range raised

Ugh. Just when I was getting used to the thought of having to pay $20 a share, Twitter just went and filed a revised Form S-1 with the SEC to raise the suggested price range from $17 to $20 to a new range of $23 to $25.

 

See:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312513424260/d564001ds1a.htm

 

I can't blame them if the demand is there. And it simply indicates that Twitter and its Wall Street underwriters are not having any trouble lining up prospective investors for the IPO.

-- Jack Krupansky

What the Twitter IPO means

Interesting perspective piece by Quartz on the Twitter IPO:

What Twitter's IPO means

http://qz.com/140197/what-twitters-ipo-means/

 

Yeah, the piece is a little depressing, but right now I am all in favor of anything that reduces demand for the Twitter IPO so that I can get in at a cheaper price. I'm not looking for a quick pop – like the 101% pop on the opening day for The Container Store (TCS) IPO last week. I see Twitter as a longer-term investment play. In other words, let the critics and know-nothing pundits bash Twitter all they want, I'm after the long-term potential – and a cheaper entry price.

-- Jack Krupansky