Friday, August 10, 2012

Recession Watch Indicator for week ended August 10, 2012

Here's my own personal cut at a recession watch indicator, for week ended August 10, 2012:
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Rate: modestly negative (-1.3) – yellow flag (-2)
  • Weekly Employment Insurance Initial Claims: elevated but below 400K (368K) – pale green flag (+1)
  • Recent M2 Money Stock: rising – green flag (+2)
  • Macroeconomic Advisers GDP outlook for Q3: modest growth (+1.9%) – pale green flag (+1)
  • Recent Employment Growth: modest (163K) – pale green flag (+1)
  • Recent ISM Manufacturing Reports: slightly negative (49.8) – pale yellow flag (-1)
  • Recent ISM Services Reports: modestly positive (52.6) – pale green flag (+1)
  • Average: +0.43 – pale green – recession not likely but still possible
No real change since last week.
 
-- Jack Krupansky

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