Recession Watch Indicator for week ended August 10, 2012

Here's my own personal cut at a recession watch indicator, for week ended August 10, 2012:

• ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Rate: modestly negative (-1.3) – yellow flag (-2)
• Weekly Employment Insurance Initial Claims: elevated but below 400K (368K) – pale green flag (+1)
• Recent M2 Money Stock: rising – green flag (+2)
• Macroeconomic Advisers GDP outlook for Q3: modest growth (+1.9%) – pale green flag (+1)
• Recent Employment Growth: modest (163K) – pale green flag (+1)
• Recent ISM Manufacturing Reports: slightly negative (49.8) – pale yellow flag (-1)
• Recent ISM Services Reports: modestly positive (52.6) – pale green flag (+1)
• Average: +0.43 – pale green – recession not likely but still possible

No real change since last week.

 

-- Jack Krupansky