Saturday, August 18, 2012

Recession Watch Indicator for week ended August 17, 2012

Here's my own personal cut at a recession watch indicator, for week ended August 17, 2012:
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Rate: very modestly negative (-0.6) – pale yellow flag (-1)
  • Weekly Employment Insurance Initial Claims: elevated but below 400K (366K) – pale green flag (+1)
  • Recent M2 Money Stock: rising, but flat in recent weeks – pale green flag (+1)
  • Macroeconomic Advisers GDP outlook for Q3: modest growth (+1.9%) – pale green flag (+1)
  • Recent Employment Growth: modest (163K) – pale green flag (+1)
  • Recent ISM Manufacturing Reports: slightly negative (49.8) – pale yellow flag (-1)
  • Recent ISM Services Reports: modestly positive (52.6) – pale green flag (+1)
  • Average: +0.57 – pale green – recession not likely but still possible
No real change in the overall outlook since last week.
 
-- Jack Krupansky

1 Comments:

At 7:07 PM EDT , Anonymous QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARS said...

Maybe another recession is around the corner.

 

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